It was a flimsy attempt to deceive. You can’t intimidate someone by threatening to take something they don’t want. There will be no queue to return to Russia while Putin remains in power. The invasion of Ukraine has already caused serious damage to the country’s prestige. But by declaring the expropriation of private property a legitimate tool of the state, Putin has hammered the final nail in Russia’s coffin as an international economy.
Forced nationalization of foreign-owned assets is an act of desperation by an authoritarian regime. It turns Russia into a club of pariah states along with the likes of Venezuela, North Korea and Cuba. With Moscow isolated, the Kremlin may have decided there was no way back, not letting its reputation be damaged, and so it wouldn’t lose much.
It is safe to assume that ExxonMobil will have billions of dollars out of its pocket as a result of Russia’s actionsattributed to him:AP
Or perhaps Putin is betting that as Europe struggles to get rid of Russian supplies of oil and gas, realpolitik will ensure that international relations eventually prevail — or that they can be quickly rebuilt where they do not. There are certainly questions about whether European leaders are willing to make the sacrifices to voters that will be required to achieve a complete respite from Russian imports. There are also doubts about whether European solidarity will be able to withstand the stress caused by the energy crisis.
Countries have tried desperately to maintain a united front but as energy prices have pushed the continent to the brink of recession and households have been told to reduce consumption, cracks have emerged in relations. Next winter will be the final test. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned European countries not to scramble for energy security in the coming months. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said he fears a “wild west scenario” that threatens to disrupt unity among EU member states and spark social unrest in which European countries stop cooperating with each other on energy supplies.
Yesterday, the global energy watchdog issued a new appeal: Europe must cut its gas consumption by more than a tenth to prevent the risks of power rationing and widespread blackouts.
But the problem with the IEA’s warning is that it is explicitly based on a “worst-case scenario”, which immediately reduces the urgency for action. There is a tendency to defeatism, too, and that says Putin is right about the continent’s need for Russia.
By declaring the expropriation of private property a legitimate tool of the state, Putin has hammered the final nail in Russia’s coffin as an international economy.
A more rational approach is needed in which the West is going in the opposite direction and getting the Kremlin out of the system completely. Of course it will be painful but with refurbishment of gas storage facilities, increased LNG supplies from North America and Qatar, and energy efficiency measures, it can be done.
In fact, with European LNG imports expected to rise 40 percent over the coming months, these shipments, along with the destruction of natural demand due to higher gas prices, are enough to cover a complete halt in Russian pipeline flows, according to research from Bloomberg.
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Another assumption that Putin seems to have made is that he will remain in power. However, with Russian forces withdrawing across vast swathes of Ukraine, thoughts have inevitably shifted to a world without its leader for the past 22 years.
There is no going back without changing the system. Putin’s gangs have turned his country into an unattainable basket case.
Telegraph, London
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Originally published at Melbourne News Vine
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