“My view of Russia is different from what you might hear from 90 percent of what I call ‘experts’, political scientists,” he says.
It could be a protracted conflict, Browder predicts, which he says “ends one of two ways – either Ukraine wins or Russia wins. That is. There is no common ground. I know Putin – he doesn’t negotiate.”
Political scientists all work in the realm of agreements, negotiations, and summits, but it all depends on their dealings with countries that deal with a certain set of rules.
“that they [the experts] says Browder, who calls these opinions nonsense.
As he sees it, the “experts” are addicted to the idea that this conflict can be negotiated to its end.
According to Browder, “If we give him some promises about NATO, we give him a part of the land and then all the problems are solved,” experts see the decision.
“What I have learned about Vladimir Putin in my personal struggle with him is that his motives are very different from what others might imagine. He does not play by any set of rules.”
For Putin, Browder thinks war is an existential wager.
What I learned about Vladimir Putin in my personal struggle with him is that his motives are very different from what others might imagine. He does not play by any set of rules.
Bill Browder
“The reason he is at war in Ukraine – which is not a very well accepted reason – is because he is afraid of his own people because he stole a lot of money from them over a long period of time.
“He does it because he wants a war of distraction, all for internal consumption. It is a war designed to make sure that his people are not angry with him, that they are angry at a foreign enemy.”
Browder describes Putin as a psychopath: “A person who has no boundaries, no conscience, no sympathy. All he cares about is his well-being and his survival.
Bill Browder says Putin “never shows weakness and never compromises”. attributed to him:Bloomberg
“He’s not like some delirious lunatic who acts irrationally. He’s rational. Everything he does is for his own set of really devious goals. His goal is to survive, to survive he has to stay in power, and for him to stay in power He must ensure that the Russian people do not rise up against him.”
Thus, Putin’s end game is war, according to Browder who has first-hand knowledge of being in his own battle with Putin.
“I bring a personal perspective on what it means to have a personal struggle with Putin over the past 13 years and know how he behaves. He never negotiates, never shows weakness and never compromises. All he knows how to do is escalate.”
Based on these ideas, Browder suspected that Russia would continue to throw all it had into the war. But contrary to a lot of comments, he doesn’t think either side has enough overwhelming military advantage to win.
I think the Ukrainians are doing a good job of preventing themselves from losing the war and they are pushing Russia back in certain places, but they don’t have an overwhelming military advantage to win the war. On the other hand, Putin does not have an overwhelming military advantage either.”
But Putin has plenty of motives.
“You can’t be a dictator and lose a war, so my feeling is that the Russian people will take care of him very quickly,” Browder said.
Originally published at Melbourne News Vine
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