They were called back in the late afternoon on Monday, and workers only said the release had been indefinitely postponed. The National Statistics Office has yet to explain the delay or announce a new date. On Friday, the government also failed to release data on exports and imports for September and did not say when it would do so.
China’s refusal to provide statistics, along with the haphazard way in which delays were reported, indicates either that part of the bureaucracy was a mess or that China’s economy was in worse shape than most people realized. It also raised questions about the reliability of the data.
China’s decision to delay the release of its economic data raises many questions. attributed to him:Bloomberg
“It’s a huge mistake,” said Taiso Zhang, a professor of law at Yale University who specializes in comparative legal and economic history. “I don’t know if they massage the numbers. Even if they need to massage the shapes, the best thing to do is to massage them within the usual time frame.”
Beijing set a target in March for growth to be “about 5.5 percent” this year. However, Western economists estimated that the Chinese economy grew by just over 3 percent in the third quarter.
That would have been better than the 0.4 percent growth recorded in the second quarter, when Shanghai was shut down for two months to stem the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Xi placed a premium on social stability and national security, often through actions that had the side effects of slowing economic growth and employment. Regulators have imposed restrictions on the technology sector, which has contributed to widespread layoffs among young employees. Dozens of the country’s private property developers defaulted on debt this year after Beijing thwarted property speculation. Businessmen were fleeing the country. Municipal shutdowns to halt the COVID-19 outbreak have taken a heavy toll.
Questions have long been raised about whether China’s economic growth statistics can be somewhat inflated or watered down from year to year. But until recently, China also released more nuanced data that made it possible to draw conclusions about the overall health of the economy.
One such measure is the rising value of new office complexes, railway lines and other investment projects. But starting last year, China no longer releases data on construction cost inflation.
This made it difficult to calculate the true value of the new investments, said Diana Chueleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London consultancy. So, while the total invested money is still available, it is no longer clear what that money actually buys.
Fundamental data was available for China’s international trade, which is the main driver of its growth. But the growing contradictions began to become apparent over the summer.
The General Administration of Customs of China recorded sharp increases in exports to the United States and Europe through August. But the number of containers leaving Chinese ports to these destinations has been consistent.
“It’s a huge mistake. I don’t know if they massage the numbers. Even if they need to massage the shapes, the best thing to do is massage them within the usual time frame.”
Yale University law professor Taiso Zhang said China made a huge mistake in delaying the release of its latest economic figures.
The average prices that factories in China charge wholesalers have not changed. Few economists believe that China makes more money from exports through inflation. The plateau in containers even as export statistics rise is consistent with previous periods of economic weakness in China, as exporters overvalue their shipments to customs officials as part of complex strategies to move money out of China.
There are other signs that actual exports of goods are now in trouble. Taiwan has very similar trade patterns to China’s trade patterns, and on October 7, Taiwan recorded a sharp and unexpected decline in its imports and exports during September.
Another problem is that even when China releases the data, it sometimes gives less explanation now for how the data is calculated. Derek Sisoris, a senior fellow on China and India at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said he used to get answers from Chinese officials about how to calculate certain investment statistics. But in the past two years, they are no longer willing to discuss their data.
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Monday’s delay in the release of economic data did not have a noticeable impact on China’s financial markets on Tuesday. Stock prices rose sharply in Hong Kong as the change in British tax policy preceded a global rally in stock markets. Stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen are largely unchanged from international events and also largely run by the Chinese authorities.
But the delay could have a devastating effect on China’s image in financial markets.
“If delays start to become the norm, it could reduce confidence in official economic data and the professionalism of the Chinese bureaucracy,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, chief China economist at Capital Economics.
This article originally appeared in . format New York times.
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Originally published at Melbourne News Vine
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